Handicapping, that’s the main thing.

We handicap horses in much the same way as the official BHA handicappers do, or the Racing Post for example. In our case, things are just a little more fluid.

At the BHA, horses are given an official rating after they perform. At the Racing Post, things are similar though there is a rating assigned to every individual performance.

At The Wire, we’re essentially attempting to use the past to predict the future. So, our ratings are assigned based on how well we believe a horse will run in the relevant conditions. It’s a predictive rating using past performances, pedigree and other factors such as ground and pace to assess how well a horse may run.

Our ratings, once assigned, are then weight adjusted. From there, if we think a race looks too close to call then we won’t bet in it. If a horse is significantly far ahead of its opposition, we may consider a bet. Even then, the odds available must represent good value.

In other words, if we handicap a race and get a horse 2lbs ahead of the next best and its price is 11/10, we don’t believe that’s good enough value and we won’t bet.

Other Factors

Handicapping is the main thing, but we don’t ignore other factors.

While we do not claim to have inside information, and wouldn’t accept it anyway, we do have our collective finger on the racing pulse.

With that, our knowledge of pedigrees and how likely it is that a certain young horse will run to a certain level comes in handy. It’s also well-known on occasion just how smart an unexposed horse is and so sometimes value presents itself in races we can’t handicap in the traditional way.

As well as ground conditions, pace and pedigrees we also consider trainers, jockeys and myriad other factors when attempting to produce selections.